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 2009 Gold Price Forecast and Update on Metanor Resources Inc. (TSX-V: MTO)

 Abridged Report - By James O'Rourke - July 11, 2008 (updated 07/09/08)

 
 

Gold Price Forecast

      

Madison Avenue Research Group's outlook for gold as articulated well over a year ago (March 6, 2007) remains extremely bullish. Our sentiments at the time were shared with Louise Yamada, managing director of Yamada Technical Research Advisors LLC in New York, former head of technical research at Citigroup. Yamada saw gold surpassing US$730 on its way to US$3,000 within a decade. "Gold is the purest play against the dollar,'' said Louise Yamada. Yamada is highly respected and was voted Wall Street’s best technical analyst from 2001 to 2004.
 

2008/09 Gold Price Forecast

Our near term forecast on gold echoes Graham Wark and John Hill, metals analysts at Citigroup who recently were quoted as saying "gold is likely to regain $1,000/oz by end of 2008 and to work higher through 2009-2010 … long term, we believe that gold is capable of doubling or tripling from current levels".
 

Madison Avenue Research Group believes the drivers of the gold bull market appear intact heading into Autumn where historically fabrication has tended to heighten the market for gold. Factors cited in Madison Avenue Research Group’s non abridged gold forecast report:

  • Soaring crude oil, inflation and dollar concerns are centre stage. NYMEX crude might hit $150 per barrel near term, which will give further support for gold prices.

  • Global growth was able to progress as it had detached, from the United States, which is braced for further fallout from the crisis in credit markets caused by problems in the U.S. high risk mortgage sector.

  • Growth in demand, particularly from an expanding middle class in the developing world, would continue to be a main driver of gold prices in the long run.

  • Additional supply of 200-300 TPY gold production is likely to be absorbed by a combination of wealth creation in China, petrodollars in Russia/Mid-East, and ETF inflows. Total demand for gold is around 3,600 metric tons but global miners produce only around 2,450 metric tons annually, with the deficit compensated by central bank sales and recycling. The gap between demand and supply is likely to continue.

  • Currently strong jewellery and industrial demand may diminish nominally in 2008, however a willingness to decrease dollar dependence by the central banks in Russia, China and the Arabic region will increase; a small shift of the percentage of petro dollars into gold investments will cause gold market prices to seek a higher trading range.

  • Geopolitical risk from U.S. and Israel militarily confronting Iran is wild card and most volatile catalyst for gold.

With our Gold metal forecast we have observed gold’s positioning in the commodity-super cycle and it is obvious gold mining shares and the yellow precious metal lags in the curve compared to other commodities which have seen rises of ~eight to thirteen fold increases since the lows in 1999.   In comparison, gold has risen a just a mere three and a half times from its low (~USD$250 in 1999).  The gold/oil ratio is now at the lowest levels seen for decades – although comparing the two is becoming more a scenario of comparing apples and oranges since oil is driven more by industrial demand whereas gold is driven more so by investor demand. # #


Update on Metanor Recourses Inc. (TSX-V: MTO)

North America's Newest Unhedged Gold Producer, Debt Free, Fully Financed, Tremendous Exploration Potential, Outstanding Management

 

       There have been a number of developments on the Jr. gold exploration company featured in our last forecast report, Metanor Resources Inc. (TSX Venture Exchange: MTO chart news)(US listing: MEAOF). In our 2008 forecast we discussed how mining production is stressed to bring sufficient gold to market and the companies engaged with this responsibility have exceptional upside exposure to rising gold prices, thus offering Metanor Resources Inc. for consideration as a candidate for investment portfolios as Metanor becomes a gold producer utilizing their 100% owned Bachelor Lake Gold Mill in the prolific Abitibi Mining District of Quebec. Below is an update as Metanor is wrapping up batch testing, has already poured its first gold bars, and will soon dawn the official status as "gold producer".

 

Upside Valuation/Summary: The current market cap of MTO.V is well below the replacement value of their infrastructure alone, ignoring the ~1M oz gold resource, significant exploration potential and substantial revenue projections.  Jay Taylor, mining expert, has made MTO.V his top pick in 2008 saying "This is a story of production, exploration, and building ounces". For those not familiar with the Metanor Resources,  the time to pay attention is now as Metanor's new 1,200 (upgradeable capacity) tonne/day mill is now being scaled into full production. Production in 2008/09 should conservatively come in at 30K - 35K oz gold and ramp up from there to 65k oz in 2009/10. The mill is configured to produce dore bars of gold, with a small component of silver. MTO.V has ~1,000,000 oz of Gold (NI-43-101 measured and indicated) available from their three properties and the ongoing exploration drill program at their Barry deposit is just one of many venues to expand the resource base that is exceeding expectations. Metanor Resources' gold milling facility and infrastructure has a replacement value of ~$140M and sits geographically as the only mill located within 200 km in a gold rich district that possesses additional resources exceeding 1.5M oz. Metanor is also amassing properties within this area, near their Bachelor Lake Gold Mine & Mill, and will play a central role mining the resources in this region for decades. Their forward projected EPS will likely be very significant as a debt free unhedged gold producer and the current market cap relative to expected revenues is disproportionate (analyst report pegs $3+ per share price and no need for dilution). With approximately 73M shares outstanding and currently trading under CDN$1/share, the present valuation of MTO.V provides exceptional opportunity for investors. Over 50% of Metanor's outstanding shares are held by institutional interests, amongst them Dynamic Mutual Funds (managed by Goodman & Co.).

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It is not often a new gold mine comes online in a stable jurisdiction, especially offering as much near term operational value and future potential as Metanor. Once the shares that are currently available in its current trading range are absorbed it is likely the stock price of MTO.V will rise significantly. There is just too much going for Metanor and its future prospects, the window of opportunity being made available by shares at the current price level (while still available) are considered by those in-the-know as extremely undervalued with tremendous near-term upside potential. There should be no further share dilution or any bank financing in Metanor's future - the math of a 1,200TPD (65K oz gold per annum) operation dictates there should be no lack of funds available to grow and reward shareholders accordingly.

 

Metanor's Barry Deposit - The beginning of a new area mining camp
   
     The market has yet to fully understand the significance of what Metanor is sitting on (and around) at the Barry Deposit. The Barry deposit is like opening Pandora’s box and has the potential for a 25+ year mine life as the work brings forth results that their geologist believes exists to be proven.
 

     Metanor owns two drills rigs that have been going full out for past several months and has drilled thousands of holes.  Currently several hundred

drill core samples are in the process of being assayed . The immediate exploration plan of action, currently underway, at the Barry deposit is to extend the pit from surface to somewhere about 50m depth - to securitize the mine for the next 10+ years. There is also significant longer-term exploration at Barry on multiple targets as the property is approximately 15km in length and the zone they are currently working is associated with IP anomalies that extend across the entire property.
 

     When MTO.V acquired the Barry deposit  it was represented/interpreted to be a flat zone deposit, when in fact it is now better understood that everything is sub vertical with huge upside resource potential. The original interpretation was likely from a section that was a shifted fault, something suspected by the MTO.V’s geologist, Andre Tremblay, something he knew from experience from a lengthy career in the Abitibi region and on his recommendation Metanor purchased the Barry deposit.

 

    Andre Tremblay is the Director of Exploration for Metanor, he holds a bachelor's degree in geological engineering and a masters' degree in earth sciences (structure) from the Universite du Quebec in Chicoutimi. He's acted as a director of exploration and/or various senior geologist positions with companies (as Ressources minieres Coleraine, GeoNova Explorations, Gestion S.R.C. Inc., Groupe Minier O, Mines Camchib, Campbell Resources Inc.) and is one of the most respect authorities in the Abitibi region. In an interview with Madison Avenue Research Group mining research analyst, July 1, 2008, Andre Tremblay had a very optimistic and encouraging opinion of what was being accomplished; “I am very very positive we will double and maybe triple the resources fairly easily now ... every time we can define some kind of geometric volume like that we double the zone. It is going to be easy because 20m depth is not very hard (offering ~1/2M tonnes) – if we go to 200m we have 5 million tonnes.

 

    Mr. Tremblay believes there is a mining camp of significance to be developed in the area stemming from work at the Barry property. The interesting activity at Barry is generating much attention in the neighbourhood and Metanor’s Barry property (and now committed satellite properties) is growing bigger as Metanor makes deals with neighbours – ensuring future growth.

 

    Looking further down the road; even though Metanor is currently working Barry from surface to 50m – shallow depth for open pit, the mining of the zone at depth (yet untested) should go at least to 1000m as in the Abitibi region there are numerous mines that up to 4000m – 5000m that are still intersecting mineralized zones.

 

    Visible - free gold: Metanor is finding visible/free gold throughout the Barry deposit that is unlike anything their geologist has seen in his 30+ year career in the region. From the initial 40,000 tonnes passed through the gold mill so far has yield ~5.3g/t, one more gram than was expected from the analysis of drilling going into the mining effort. The 5.3g/t would likely have been even better (closer to 6g/t) as MTO has since improved recovery.

 

 

Image 2: MTO.V's Batchelor Lake Gold Mill - 1,200 TPD capacity, currently operating at 725 TPD in batch testing phase

 

Metanor Resources Inc. (TSX-V: MTO) is a new, debt free, unhedged, gold producer* in mining friendly Quebec. Metanor's 100% owned 1,200 (upgradeable capacity) TPD mill in Desmaraisville (Val d’Or) is now being scaled into full production. Production in 2008/09 should conservatively come in at 25K - 35Koz of gold and ramp up from there to 65k oz in 2009/10. Ore extract is coming from their 100% open pit operation on their Barry gold deposit (located approximately 100 km southeast of the mill). The Barry property boasts a highly efficient ore-to-waste ratio of only 1:1.

 

The mill has already poured in excess of 7,000 oz gold in batch testing phase. Positive cash flow from production is currently being be used for new acquisitions in the area and to expand the resource base at the Barry Deposit and further develop the enormous potential at the Bachelor Lake Gold Mine which produced over 131,000 oz of gold during the 1980's, it currently has resources of 300,000 oz Au and is open in all directions at depth with plans to upgrade to 1,000,000 oz.
 

According to Metanor's President, Ghislain Morin, current depth of the shaft at the Bachelor Lake Gold Mine is 1,700 feet, the shaft will be sunk an additional 600 feet to a depth of 2,300 feet and a 20,000 meter drill program is expected to add an additional 700,000 ounces of resources. Mr. Morin has many years of mining experience with an expertise in both underground development and shaft sinking. Prior to joining Metanor Resources, Mr. Morin built mills for several area miners including Cambior (now owned by Breakwater), Aur Resources and BHP Billiton. The two main veins at the Bachelor Lake Gold Mine run parallel and are 75 feet apart at an 80 degree angle. Metanor expects to drop shaft an additional 700 feet in the near future and the potential is in place to identify 1.5 million ounces going forward. Area miners such as Aur Resources (now Teck Cominco), Agnico-Eagle and Sigma are currently mining at depths of between 5,000 and 8,000 feet. The gold grade at the Bachelor Lake property increases at depth and the strike is open in all directions at the 2,300 foot mark.

 

The intrinsic value of MTO.V is an outstanding opportunity for investors getting involved now and certainly justifies a significant upside share price adjustment. Their gold milling facility has a replacement value of $140M+ and sits geographically as the only mill located within 200 km in a gold rich district that possesses resources exceeding 1.5M oz. MTO has a readily expandable resource base (current combined total is ~1M oz Au); 300,000 ounces on the Bachelor Lake Property, 450,000 on the Dubuisson Property, 100,000 (historic) ounces on the Hewfran Property, and ~200,000 oz on the presently ever expanding resource of the Barry deposit which they are currently mining and continue exploring. Metanor has recently acquired gold properties (63 adjacent claims) contiguous to Bachelor Lake which hosts the once producing (until 1967) Coniagas Mine.

 

* Metanor Resources Inc. is still in "batch testing" phase - official "producer status" to be dawned after batch testing phase is completed - expected by end of Summer 2008.
 

Image 3: Exceptional Management

Metanor's President & COO, Mr. Ghislain Morin (right) & Mr. Serge Roy, Chairman CEO (left) holding first gold bar poured in early 2008. Since batch testing start up, in 5 months time, they have increased the production TPD by 40%, improved recovery rates to in excess of 95%, poured in excess of 7,000 ounces of gold, maintained strict cost control and ensured a successful trouble free stat-up - a rare feat for any new gold milling facility.

 

 

  

 

This Report has been updated as of July 11, 2008 to reflect the corporate news release this week of Metanor Resources Inc. “25% more gold from the Bulk Sampling at Barry”. The Barry Deposit continues to exceed expectations and this news of 25% more gold, increased recovery rates to 96%, successful completion of bulk sampling, and confirmation the company will proceed to commercial production is welcome news to shareholders.

 

Latest new release from Company on the Barry Deposit:

 

 Excerpt from Metanor's July 9, 2008 News Release
 

Copy From Source

 25% more gold from the Bulk Sampling at Barry

 

July 9th , 2008 - Val-d'Or, Quebec, Canada: Metanor Resources Inc. (MTO: TSX-V) is pleased to announce that it has completed, with great success, its program of Bulk Sampling of more than 50,000 metric tons of material coming from the open pit of the Barry project, Quebec and the processing of this gold bearing material to the mill of the Bachelor mine.
 

Since the beginning of 2008, Métanor proceeded to the Bachelor mill a total of 53,901 metric tons of mill-feed at a grade of 5.23 g/t Au coming from the open pit of the Barry deposit. With an average recovery of 84.6%, Métanor thus recovered 7,655 ounces of gold. This represents an increase of approximately 25% of the gold content during the evaluation of the resources.

 

The Gold Resources for the Barry deposit were evaluated by Systèmes Géostat International Inc. in compliance with NI 43-101 and are estimated at 52 300 oz Au of Indicated Resources (385,000 t at 4.23 g/t Au) and 126 600 oz Au of Inferred Resources (966,000 t at 4.07 g/t Au) in zones 43, 45 and the southwest extension of the main zone (April 30, 2007). This resource evaluation is incorporating channel sampling and all drill results performed by Murgor. This resource evaluation was performed with a 2 g/t Au Cut-off and using the inverse distance method. A major portion of the resources are at, or near surface and are considered open-pitable, thereby reducing operating costs significantly.

 

Metanor completely refurbished the Bachelor mill in order to proceed the material taken from the Barry deposit and is always improving the operations to increase recovery. Current recovery is approximately 92% and Métanor is aiming to bring this recovery to approximately 96% during the next weeks.

 

Following these very interesting and conclusive results as for the profitability of this project of open pit mining, Métanor confirms its intention to go in commercial production during the next weeks...


 

 

...See full Copy from Source

 

Related Research Links:

 - Metanor Resources Inc. Corporate Website: www.Metanor.ca

 - Mining MarketWatch Jounal Review of Metanor: www.MiningMarketWatch.net/MTO.htm

 - Analyst's Report: [PDF]

 Content found herein is not investment advise see Terms of Use, Disclosure & Disclaimer

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Disclaimer & Disclosure: The information contained herein is believed to be accurate but this cannot be guaranteed. The analysis does not purport to be a complete study of securities and issues mentioned herein, and readers are advised to discuss any related purchase or sale decisions with a registered securities broker. Companies mentioned herein may be very early stages of development and thus can therefore be subject to business failure, and are to be considered speculative and high risk in nature. Reports herein are for information purposes and are not solicitations to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned. The author may or may not hold a position (long or short) in the securities mentioned herein. This is a journalistic article and the author is not a registered securities advisor, and opinions expressed should not be considered as investment advice to buy or sell securities, but rather opinion only. The publisher may make take journalistic liberties employing the use of pseudonyms as reference contacts and accepting information at face value from what it believes to be credible sources. Further disclaimer and disclosure regarding various aspects of this report / article including compensation and other points may be seen at http://www.madisonaveresearch.com/disclaimer.htm.
 

 
 
 

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